Drawing your curve
A continuous bet on Dekant is fully described by two numbers. That's the whole user interface.
Center (μ)
The point estimate. Where on the number line you think the answer will land.
If the market asks "What will SOL be on July 1?" and you think the answer is $186, your center is $186. The peak of your curve sits exactly there.
There's no rule that says your center has to be one of the bin boundaries. Whatever number you pick, the system computes how much of your stake belongs in each bin based on the Gaussian PDF evaluated over that bin's interval.
Conviction (σ)
The width of your curve. Smaller σ means a sharper peak; larger σ means a flatter, broader bet.
The slider on the trading UI shows four labelled bands; here's roughly what they mean:
| Label | σ | Shape | Posture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp | < 18 | Narrow spike | "I'm pretty sure" |
| Focused | 18–35 | Tight bell | "Probably here, give or take" |
| Wide | 36–59 | Broad bell | "Somewhere in this region" |
| Hedged | ≥ 60 | Flat blanket | "Spread me across the whole range" |
These labels are nominal, not contractual. The actual payout shape comes from the math, not the label.
The trade-off
Sharp curves give you higher peak return per dollar staked in exchange for a smaller window of profitability. Wide curves do the opposite: lower peak return, larger window.
You can think of σ as your "how surprised will I be" knob:
- If you're trading on something you've researched and have a real view on, go sharp. Your peak gets the multiplier and the window covers what you actually believe.
- If you only have a vague directional sense, go wide. You give up most of the multiplier but make sure you're in the money for a wide range of outcomes.
- If you have no idea, don't trade this market.
What gets shown to you
Before you submit, the trading UI shows three numbers:
- Stake — what you're putting in.
- Max payout — the most you can earn if the outcome lands exactly at your peak.
- Break-even window — the symmetric range around your center where you'd at least get your stake back.
These numbers are an illustrative model based on the curve you've drawn. Actual on-chain returns depend on the AMM state at resolution time (other traders' positions, liquidity, fees). Always treat the bet preview as a calibration aid, not a guarantee.